MLB / mlb / live
MIN 2 / NYY 5MINMinnesota Twins47%
NYYNew York Yankees53%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterMike ParedesConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
NYYHome starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
MIN47%ML +188
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability67%Selected moneyline pick
NYY53%ML -225
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Mike ParedesMIN starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +116 draftkings / U -140 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%under
O 3.546%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betonlineag / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+188 / -225MIN / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -118 / U +100
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total