MLB / mlb / live
CIN 4 / NYY 1CINCincinnati Reds51%
NYYNew York Yankees49%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase BurnsConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
NYYHome starterElmer RodríguezConfirmed
CIN51%ML -104
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
NYY49%ML -112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Chase BurnsCIN starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 betonlineag / U -135 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 7.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Elmer RodríguezNYY starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -140 fanduel / U +118 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-104 / -112CIN / NYY moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -122 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total