MLB / mlb / live
CIN 10 / NYY 2CINCincinnati Reds45%
NYYNew York Yankees55%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
NYYHome starterWill WarrenConfirmed
CIN45%ML +165
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability64%Selected moneyline pick
NYY55%ML -200
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +114 betrivers / U -130 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -128 fanduel / U +128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%over
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+165 / -200CIN / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total