MLB / mlb / live
CIN 0 / NYY 5CINCincinnati Reds51%
NYYNew York Yankees49%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterRhett LowderConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
NYYHome starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
CIN51%ML +230
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability29%Selected moneyline pick
NYY49%ML -286
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betonlineag / U -150 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 13 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -132 fanduel / U +117 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%over
O 10.54%over
O 11.52%over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 13 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+230 / -286CIN / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total