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CHW 2 / NYY 12
CHWChicago White Sox51%
NYYNew York Yankees49%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterDavis MartinConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
NYYHome starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
CHW51%ML +124
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
NYY49%ML -148

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.7 pts

Model favors CHW 51.5% but market has NYY at 56.6% — a classic model-market split. Both Cole (2.45 ERA) and Martin (2.41 ERA, 78 IP) qualify as aces; totals lean under. Cole's 22 IP is a small sample but Martin has sustained it over 78 IP. Market knows more here; I lean NYY on market weight, under on ace matchup.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Davis MartinCHW starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 bovada / U -117 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%under
O 5.552%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Gerrit ColeNYY starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -104 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+124 / -148CHW / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total