MLB / mlb / live
CHW 5 / NYY 10CHWChicago White Sox45%
NYYNew York Yankees55%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony KayConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
NYYHome starterCarlos RodónConfirmed
CHW45%ML +146
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
NYY55%ML -176
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Carlos RodónNYY starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+146 / -176CHW / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total