MLB / mlb / live
CLE 5 / NYY 4CLECleveland Guardians49%
NYYNew York Yankees51%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterGavin Williams
Model pickNYY moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterGerrit Cole
CLE49%ML +117
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
NYY51%ML -136
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.6 pts
Model sees coin flip (50.6% NYY), market has NYY at 59%. Cole's missing stats (all null) suggest pitcher_data_fallback wasn't triggered but data is incomplete. CLE offense is anemic (3.0 RPG, .600 OPS). Model's 9.07 total vs market 7.0 is a 2-run structural miss; Yankee Stadium PF 0.93 and weak CLE bats argue under. Lean CLE only because market disagrees strongly with model's toss-up view.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+117 / -136CLE / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total