MLB / mlb / live
TOR 2 / NYY 0TORToronto Blue Jays36%
NYYNew York Yankees64%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterBraydon Fisher
Model pickNYY moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterCarlos Rodón
TOR36%ML +121
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
NYY64%ML -145
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.8 pts
Model has NYY at 64% vs market 59%, a modest 5pt comparison. Fisher has 2.1 IP this season—effectively unknown. Rodón's missing ERA/WHIP makes both starters opaque. Model total 8.81 vs market 8.0 is close but model leans high in pitcher park (0.933 PF). Too much uncertainty to back the model's over-lean or be strong on side.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+121 / -145TOR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total