MLB / mlb / live
TOR 2 / NYY 0TORToronto Blue Jays36%
NYYNew York Yankees64%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterBraydon Fisher
Model pickNYY moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterCarlos Rodón
TOR36%ML +121
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
NYY64%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap7.4 pts
Model has NYY at 64% vs market 59%, a modest 5pt comparison. Fisher has 2.1 IP this season—effectively unknown. Rodón's missing ERA/WHIP makes both starters opaque. Model total 8.81 vs market 8.0 is close but model leans high in pitcher park (0.933 PF). Too much uncertainty to back the model's over-lean or be strong on side.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+121 / -145TOR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total