MLB / mlb / live
TBR 4 / NYY 2TBRTampa Bay Rays40%
NYYNew York Yankees60%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterNick Martinez
Model pickNYY moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterGerrit Cole
TBR40%ML +124
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
NYY60%ML -147
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.1 pts
Model picks NYY at 60.2% vs market's 58%, but TBR has superior record (33-15) and offense (6.5 RPG, .802 OPS vs 3.5 RPG, .692 OPS). Offense_defense_mismatch flag fires correctly—model backing worse team on both dimensions. Lean TBR as live dog; total 8.92 vs market 8.0 suggests over in pitcher-friendly park.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+124 / -147TBR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -107 / U -111
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total