MLB / mlb / live
TOR 4 / NYY 5TORToronto Blue Jays42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterDylan Cease
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterWill Warren
TOR42%ML +115
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYY58%ML -135
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.4 pts
Model has NYY 58% but Cease's 20.25 K/9 over 5.1 IP and 1.69 ERA is elite form vs Warren's 4.1 IP sample (2.08 ERA but 1.62 WHIP). Market at TOR +121 is a notable comparison point. Yankee Stadium PF 0.933 plus ace matchup supports under 8.5.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+115 / -135TOR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total