MLB / mlb / live
TEX 6 / NYY 1TEXTexas Rangers53%
NYYNew York Yankees47%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterNathan Eovaldi
Model pickTEX moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterWill Warren
TEX53%ML +170
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability36%Selected moneyline pick
NYY47%ML -202
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap17.5 pts
Model picks TEX 53.1% but market has NYY at 64.9% — an 11.8pp disagreement favoring the home side. NYY's 25-11 record and 6.5 RPG offense vs TEX's 2.4 RPG is stark. Warren's 2.08 ERA in 4.1 IP is tiny sample; Eovaldi's 9.64 ERA in 4.2 IP equally noisy. Defer to market on side. Total 8.97 vs market 8.5 is close; lean over given NYY's offense and pitcher_data_fallback risk on both starters' low IP.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+170 / -202TEX / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total