MLB / mlb / live
TEX 2 / NYY 9TEXTexas Rangers53%
NYYNew York Yankees47%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterMacKenzie Gore
Model pickTEX moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterPaul Blackburn
TEX53%ML +125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
NYY47%ML -150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.6 pts
Model favors TEX at 53% but market has NYY at 58%. NYY offensive comparison is real (5.8 vs 2.9 RPG), but model sees negative home_statcast_offense_short_xwoba. Gore's 11.81 K/9 in limited IP is strong; Blackburn lacks season stats. Park factor 0.93 argues under on 9.0 total. Lean NYY on market wisdom, slight under on park/Gore.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -150TEX / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total