MLB / mlb / live
TEX 2 / NYY 9TEXTexas Rangers53%
NYYNew York Yankees47%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterMacKenzie Gore
Model pickTEX moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterPaul Blackburn
TEX53%ML +125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYY47%ML -150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.1 pts
Model favors TEX at 53% but market has NYY at 58%. NYY offensive comparison is real (5.8 vs 2.9 RPG), but model sees negative home_statcast_offense_short_xwoba. Gore's 11.81 K/9 in limited IP is strong; Blackburn lacks season stats. Park factor 0.93 argues under on 9.0 total. Lean NYY on market wisdom, slight under on park/Gore.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -150TEX / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total