MLB / mlb / live
BAL 1 / NYY 12BALBaltimore Orioles37%
NYYNew York Yankees63%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterShane Baz
Model pickNYY moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterCam Schlittler
BAL37%ML +195
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability68%Selected moneyline pick
NYY63%ML -240
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.6 pts
Model at 62.9% vs market at 68.4% — meaningful gap favoring BAL value. Schlittler's missing stats raise uncertainty despite 10 starts logged. BAL's 15-19 record and 5.1 RPG suggest offensive struggles, but Baz's 6.75 ERA in limited IP (5.1) is exploitable. Model total 9.14 vs market 8.5 aligns with over lean in pitcher's park.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+195 / -240BAL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -111
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total