MLB / mlb / live
KCR 0 / NYY 7KCRKansas City Royals42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterCole Ragans
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterRyan Weathers
KCR42%ML +130
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
NYY58%ML -154
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.1 pts
NYY -147 and model 58.1% align well. KC's .518 OPS over 21 games is brutal; NYY's 4.9 RPG offense should handle Ragans (9.00 ERA, 2.50 WHIP in 4 IP). Model's 8.96 total vs market 8.0 suggests over lean, though Yankee Stadium 0.93 park factor tempers enthusiasm. Weathers' missing stats introduce uncertainty.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+130 / -154KCR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -112
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total