MLB / mlb / live
BAL 2 / NYY 7BALBaltimore Orioles36%
NYYNew York Yankees64%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterCade Povich
Model pickNYY moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterWill Warren
BAL36%ML +150
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
NYY64%ML -179
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.5 pts
Baltimore starter is TBD; without knowing the matchup cannot evaluate comparison. Warren's 4.1 IP across 10 starts signals extreme bullpen game usage, not a traditional starter. Model shows NYY at 64% vs market 62%, but pitcher_data_fallback makes this unreliable. Pass until lineups clarify.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+150 / -179BAL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total