MLB / mlb / live
BAL 2 / NYY 7BALBaltimore Orioles36%
NYYNew York Yankees64%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterCade Povich
Model pickNYY moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterWill Warren
BAL36%ML +150
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
NYY64%ML -179
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.8 pts
Baltimore starter is TBD; without knowing the matchup cannot evaluate comparison. Warren's 4.1 IP across 10 starts signals extreme bullpen game usage, not a traditional starter. Model shows NYY at 64% vs market 62%, but pitcher_data_fallback makes this unreliable. Pass until lineups clarify.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+150 / -179BAL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total