MLB / mlb / live
PHI 7 / NYM 2PHIPhiladelphia Phillies54%
NYMNew York Mets46%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline54%Model 20260914_auto
NYMHome starterJonah TongConfirmed
PHI54%ML -160
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYM46%ML +135
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +126 fanduel / U -158 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Jonah TongNYM starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 fanduel / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-160 / +135PHI / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total