MLB / mlb / live
PHI 3 / NYM 6PHIPhiladelphia Phillies42%
NYMNew York Mets58%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterTim MayzaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline58%Model 20260914_auto
NYMHome starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
PHI42%ML +103
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYM58%ML -123
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.4
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tim MayzaPHI starter / away
Projected K2.6Actual 0 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.572%under
O 2.547%under
O 3.526%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -153 draftkings / U +124 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+103 / -123PHI / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -106
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total