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SFG 6 / NYM 10
SFGSan Francisco Giants46%
NYMNew York Mets54%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterMatt WilkinsonConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260831_auto
NYMHome starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
SFG46%ML +168
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYM54%ML -204

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -114 betonlineag / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Nolan McLeanNYM starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 fanduel / U -164 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+168 / -204SFG / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total