MLB / mlb / live
HOU 2 / NYM 6HOUHouston Astros46%
NYMNew York Mets54%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterBennett SousaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
NYMHome starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
HOU46%ML +131
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYM54%ML -156
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Bennett SousaHOU starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 0 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.565%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -134 draftkings / U +116 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+131 / -156HOU / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total