sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

SDP 5 / NYM 2
SDPSan Diego Padres48%
NYMNew York Mets52%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterRobbie RayConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline52%Model 20260817_auto
NYMHome starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
SDP48%ML -118
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
NYM52%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.6 pts

Model favors NYM (51.6%) over market (49.1%) while picking the worse-record, worse-offense side per the mismatch flag. SDP is 67-59 vs 57-69, and Ray's 131.7 IP at 3.28 ERA is a far more established profile than Thornton's 45.3 IP with a thin 5.76 K/9 behind a 2.78 ERA. Both starters under 3.50 argues under the 8.5, against the model's 9.14.

offense defense mismatchace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Robbie RaySDP starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -113 fanduel / U +100 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 draftkings / U +100 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-118 / +100SDP / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total