MLB / mlb / live
SDP 1 / NYM 2SDPSan Diego Padres44%
NYMNew York Mets56%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
NYMHome starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
SDP44%ML +103
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
NYM56%ML -120
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 fanduel / U -153 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -148 fanduel / U +120 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 5.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%under
O 4.571%under
O 5.556%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+103 / -120SDP / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total