sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

WSN 1 / NYM 4
WSNWashington Nationals41%
NYMNew York Mets59%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline59%Model 20260810_auto
NYMHome starterRobert StockConfirmed
WSN41%ML +102
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
NYM59%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.7 pts

Fading the model here: it takes NYM despite a worse record (53-69 vs 60-63) and worse offense (.736 vs .820 OPS), the exact offense_defense_mismatch pattern. Stock has 8.0 IP across 5 starts with a 10.13 ERA and 2.13 WHIP, effectively an opener/bullpen game, against Alvarez's 3.76 ERA over 69.3 IP. Same logic supports over 8.5.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -150 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Robert StockNYM starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -147 betonlineag / U +123 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+102 / -120WSN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total