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MIA 2 / NYM 0
MIAMiami Marlins46%
NYMNew York Mets54%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
NYMHome starterRobert StockConfirmed
MIA46%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYM54%ML +102

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.5 pts

Home pitcher Robert Stock has fallback data (3 starts, no stats resolved), creating structural uncertainty. Market favors MIA at -115 (52.4% implied), model leans NYM at 54.1%. Alcantara's 3.82 ERA over 150.7 IP is solid, but model's total at 8.78 vs market 8.5 is tight. Defer to market on MIA side given home pitcher opacity.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanatics / U +109 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Robert StockNYM starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -125 betmgm1 book at this line
Model over 3.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%over
O 3.534%over
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +102MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total