MLB / mlb / live
scheduledATLAtlanta Braves51%
NYMNew York Mets49%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterAJ Smith-ShawverConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
NYMHome starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
ATL51%ML -110
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
NYM49%ML -107
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Lines
AJ Smith-ShawverATL starter / away
Projected K3.4
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 fanduel / U -104 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%
O 2.565%
O 3.544%
O 4.526%
O 5.514%
O 6.56%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.8
Best price at 4.54.5O -141 betrivers / U +114 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.570%
O 4.553%
O 5.536%
O 6.522%
O 7.513%
O 8.57%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -107ATL / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total