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ATL 1 / NYM 0
ATLAtlanta Braves55%
NYMNew York Mets45%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterChris SaleConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
NYMHome starterChristian ScottConfirmed
ATL55%ML -175
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
NYM45%ML +148

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.6 pts

Sale (2.19 ERA, 111 IP) vs Scott (3.13 ERA, 63 IP) is a legitimate ace matchup at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Model has total at 8.9 vs market 7.0—a 1.9 run gap flags structural miss. Market and model converge on ATL side (market 57.8%, model 55.2%). Both totals and side align with Sale's dominance.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Chris SaleATL starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +110 betmgm / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 7.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.519%over
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Christian ScottNYM starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 fanatics / U -130 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-175 / +148ATL / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total