MLB / mlb / live
LAD 3 / NYM 8LADLos Angeles Dodgers54%
NYMNew York Mets46%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterEmmet SheehanConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
NYMHome starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
LAD54%ML -152
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYM46%ML +127
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Emmet SheehanLAD starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 betmgm / U +124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 betonlineag / U -132 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-152 / +127LAD / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-129)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total