MLB / mlb / live
KCR 16 / NYM 12KCRKansas City Royals40%
NYMNew York Mets60%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterSeth LugoConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
NYMHome starterCionel PérezConfirmed
KCR40%ML +120
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
NYM60%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betonlineag / U +107 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Cionel PérezNYM starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.564%under
O 2.537%under
O 3.518%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -145KCR / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total