MLB / mlb / live
PHI 5 / NYM 4PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
NYMNew York Mets47%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
NYMHome starterCionel PérezConfirmed
PHI53%ML -159
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
NYM47%ML +133
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -145 fanatics / U +122 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Cionel PérezNYM starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-159 / +133PHI / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total