MLB / mlb / live
CHC 4 / NYM 3CHCChicago Cubs48%
NYMNew York Mets52%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
NYMHome starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
CHC48%ML -110
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
NYM52%ML -108
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 draftkings / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +114 fanduel / U -134 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -108CHC / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total