MLB / mlb / live
CHC 9 / NYM 6CHCChicago Cubs44%
NYMNew York Mets56%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterEdward CabreraConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline56%Model 20260622_auto
NYMHome starterKodai SengaConfirmed
CHC44%ML -114
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
NYM56%ML -105
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Edward CabreraCHC starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 bovada / U +111 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Kodai SengaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -124 fanduel / U +102 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-114 / -105CHC / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books31 ML24 run line22 total