MLB / mlb / live
ATL 3 / NYM 1ATLAtlanta Braves49%
NYMNew York Mets51%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterMartín Pérez
Model pickNYM moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterSean Manaea
ATL49%ML 0
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
NYM51%ML -120
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +116 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -132 fanduel / U +108 fanduel2 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus0 / -120ATL / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total