MLB / mlb / live
MIA 1 / NYM 10MIAMiami Marlins40%
NYMNew York Mets60%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterJohn King
Model pickNYM moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterNolan McLean
MIA40%ML +130
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
NYM60%ML -155
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.9 pts
Away pitcher Janson Junk has null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts listed—data quality issue makes total unreliable. Model leans NYM 58% vs market 59%, essentially flat. Missing pitcher stats = structural uncertainty.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+130 / -155MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total