MLB / mlb / live
MIA 1 / NYM 10MIAMiami Marlins40%
NYMNew York Mets60%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterJohn King
Model pickNYM moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterNolan McLean
MIA40%ML +130
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
NYM60%ML -155
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.6 pts
Away pitcher Janson Junk has null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts listed—data quality issue makes total unreliable. Model leans NYM 58% vs market 59%, essentially flat. Missing pitcher stats = structural uncertainty.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -155MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total