MLB / mlb / live
CIN 7 / NYM 2CINCincinnati Reds55%
NYMNew York Mets45%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase Burns
Model pickCIN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterDavid Peterson
CIN55%ML -122
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
NYM45%ML +104
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.4 pts
Both starters lack meaningful stats: NYM is TBD fallback, CIN's Burns has null ERA/IP/K9. Model predicts 8.86 total vs market 7.0 (1.86 run gap) but without pitcher context this is unactionable. Offense_defense_mismatch flags structural doubt on NYM pick despite model's 53.6% confidence.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-122 / +104CIN / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-166)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total