MLB / mlb / live
NYY 5 / NYM 2NYYNew York Yankees56%
NYMNew York Mets44%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCam Schlittler
Model pickNYY moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterClay Holmes
NYY56%ML -154
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
NYM44%ML +130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.8 pts
Model has NYY at 56% vs market 60%, reasonable convergence. Model's 9.04 total vs market 7.0 is a 2-run gap—flag fires correctly. Citi Field slight hitter park (1.03 PF). Missing pitcher stats make total projection unreliable; lean over given model confidence but downgrade to lean given data gaps.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-154 / +130NYY / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -101
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total