MLB / mlb / live
DET 4 / NYM 9DETDetroit Tigers40%
NYMNew York Mets60%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterKeider Montero
Model pickNYM moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterNolan McLean
DET40%ML +140
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
NYM60%ML -170
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.4 pts
Montero has null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts logged—data integrity issue makes away pitcher unreadable. McLean's 5.0 IP across 10 starts (~0.5 IP/start) suggests bullpen games or incomplete logging. Model predicts 8.92 total vs market 7.0; 1.92-run gap flags structural miss but unreliable pitcher data prevents forming a view.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -170DET / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -122
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total