MLB / mlb / live
DET 4 / NYM 9DETDetroit Tigers40%
NYMNew York Mets60%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterKeider Montero
Model pickNYM moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterNolan McLean
DET40%ML +140
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
NYM60%ML -170
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap0.0 pts
Montero has null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts logged—data integrity issue makes away pitcher unreadable. McLean's 5.0 IP across 10 starts (~0.5 IP/start) suggests bullpen games or incomplete logging. Model predicts 8.92 total vs market 7.0; 1.92-run gap flags structural miss but unreliable pitcher data prevents forming a view.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+140 / -170DET / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -122
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total