MLB / mlb / live
WSN 14 / NYM 2WSNWashington Nationals47%
NYMNew York Mets53%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterCade Cavalli
Model pickNYM moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterDavid Peterson
WSN47%ML +140
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
NYM53%ML -164
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.4 pts
Model has NYM at 53% but market implies 60% for home side. WSN has better offense (4.4 RPG, .820 OPS vs 3.5/.736) and superior record (13-17 vs 10-19). Peterson's 5.1 IP across 10 starts is tiny sample; Cavalli's 12.27 K/9 is a live strikeout weapon. Model total of 9.23 vs market 7.5 is a 1.7-run gap—lean under toward market wisdom.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+140 / -164WSN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total