MLB / mlb / live
WSN 5 / NYM 4WSNWashington Nationals55%
NYMNew York Mets45%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterMiles Mikolas
Model pickWSN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterFreddy Peralta
WSN55%ML +172
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability35%Selected moneyline pick
NYM45%ML -208
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap20.0 pts
Model has WSN at 55% but market implies NYM 65%—a 10-point gap flags structural miss. Both starters have 7.20 ERAs in tiny samples (5.0 IP each), rendering SP stats unreliable. WSN's 5.2 RPG offense vs NYM's 3.3 supports away side, but market knows something here. Model's 9.39 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.9-run overestimate; lean under given pitcher uncertainty washes out to market wisdom.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+172 / -208WSN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total