MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / NYM 3MINMinnesota Twins42%
NYMNew York Mets58%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterSimeon Woods Richardson
Model pickNYM moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterNolan McLean
MIN42%ML +150
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
NYM58%ML -183
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap4.2 pts
Woods Richardson has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP/K9), triggering structural uncertainty despite 10 starts logged. NYM offense is deeply broken (1.7 RPG, 7-15 record) yet model picks them at 57.5% vs market's 62%. Model total of 9.09 runs is wildly high vs market 7.5 in a pitcher's park with one team averaging 1.7 RPG. Flags signal model confusion; insufficient data to override market.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+150 / -183MIN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
31 books29 ML23 run line21 total