MLB / mlb / live
TEX 6 / MIN 2TEXTexas Rangers55%
MINMinnesota Twins45%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterNathan EovaldiConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
MINHome starterBailey OberConfirmed
TEX55%ML -125
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIN45%ML +106
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nathan EovaldiTEX starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +141 draftkings / U -140 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Bailey OberMIN starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +129 draftkings / U -148 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +106TEX / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total