MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / MIN 5NYYNew York Yankees57%
MINMinnesota Twins43%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCarlos RodónConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline57%Model 20260914_auto
MINHome starterZebby MatthewsConfirmed
NYY57%ML -172
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
MIN43%ML +145
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Carlos RodónNYY starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 fanduel / U -135 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +126 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-172 / +145NYY / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total