MLB / mlb / live
NYY 8 / MIN 3NYYNew York Yankees57%
MINMinnesota Twins43%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill WarrenConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline57%Model 20260914_auto
MINHome starterDean KremerConfirmed
NYY57%ML -130
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
MIN43%ML +110
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 fanduel / U -137 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Dean KremerMIN starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 draftkings / U +118 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-130 / +110NYY / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -111 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total