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CLE 3 / MIN 4
CLECleveland Guardians54%
MINMinnesota Twins46%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterDaniel EspinoConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline54%Model 20260907_auto
MINHome starterConnor PrielippConfirmed
CLE54%ML -108
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIN46%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts

Market is essentially pick'em (-107/-103) and the model's CLE lean at 54% is thin. Minnesota has the clear offensive comparison (5.1 RPG, .673 OPS vs 4.0 and .600), which offsets Prielipp's 5.25 ERA. Espino's 2.7 ERA and 16.2 K/9 come in only 10 IP, too small to trust. Model's 9.2 total sits well above the 8.0 line; Cleveland's punchless bats favor under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Daniel EspinoCLE starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.1Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%over
O 2.558%under
O 3.537%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Connor PrielippMIN starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +140 bovada / U -164 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-108 / -110CLE / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -116
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total