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CLE 5 / MIN 2
CLECleveland Guardians44%
MINMinnesota Twins56%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterParker MessickConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
MINHome starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
CLE44%ML -119
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIN56%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.8 pts

Model's 56.2% on MIN sits ~9 points above the market's 47.4% implied, and the pitching matchup argues the other way: Messick's 2.53 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 167 IP clearly outclass Bradley's 3.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Cleveland's .600 OPS caps the ceiling, so the model's 8.47 total versus a 7.5 line looks high even at Target Field's 1.06 park factor.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.4
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betmgm / U -141 betrivers8 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -152 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-119 / +100CLE / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total