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DET 2 / MIN 15
DETDetroit Tigers39%
MINMinnesota Twins61%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline61%Model 20260831_auto
MINHome starterAndrew MorrisConfirmed
DET39%ML -105
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
MIN61%ML -114

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.1 pts

Model at 60.9% for MIN vs market's 47.8% is a 13-point gap with no clear justification. Melton's 1.86 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 97 IP is the more established profile than Morris (2 starts, 1.34 WHIP, 3.82 ERA). Detroit's .582 OPS caps the ceiling, so despite Target Field's 1.06 park factor I prefer under 8.5 against the model's 8.89.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Troy MeltonDET starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betonlineag / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Andrew MorrisMIN starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.565%under
O 2.538%under
O 3.519%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -114DET / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-181)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total