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ATL 4 / MIN 6
ATLAtlanta Braves49%
MINMinnesota Twins51%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterAJ Smith-ShawverConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline51%Model 20260817_auto
MINHome starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
ATL49%ML -114
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
MIN51%ML -104

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.1 pts

Near pick'em: model 51.4% MIN vs market 48.4%, no real comparison either way. ATL's 74-52 record and .789 OPS outrank MIN's 62-65 and .673, so I take the small side against the model. Smith-Shawver's listed 4.3 IP across 10 starts is internally inconsistent, so I keep this to a lean. Both clubs under 4.0 RPG argues under 8.5 even in a 1.06 park.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
AJ Smith-ShawverATL starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 draftkings / U -162 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 4.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -124 draftkings / U +108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-114 / -104ATL / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -113
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total