MLB / mlb / live
ATL 2 / MIN 4ATLAtlanta Braves56%
MINMinnesota Twins44%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterMartín PérezConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
MINHome starterBailey OberConfirmed
ATL56%ML -132
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIN44%ML +112
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 fanduel / U -107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Bailey OberMIN starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 bovada / U -110 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-132 / +112ATL / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total