MLB / mlb / live
KCR 2 / MIN 3KCRKansas City Royals45%
MINMinnesota Twins55%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterSeth LugoConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
MINHome starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
KCR45%ML +152
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIN55%ML -183
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.5
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 betrivers / U -158 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 betmgm / U -135 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%over
O 9.59%over
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+152 / -183KCR / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -113 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total