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scheduled
LAALos Angeles Angels40%
MINMinnesota Twins60%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterRyan JohnsonProbable
Model pickMIN moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
MINHome starterJoe RyanProbable
LAA40%ML +147
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
MIN60%ML -175

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.1 pts

Model and market align closely: MIN -168 implies 62.7% vs model's 60.0%. Joe Ryan's 2.85 ERA over 104 IP is elite, Johnson's 6.99 ERA in 28 IP is exploitable. Model total 8.80 vs market 9.0 suggests slight under comparison. Ryan's strikeout stuff (10.52 K/9) should suppress LAA's weak offense (3.9 RPG, though .860 OPS seems misreported).

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / away
Projected K4.3
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 betmgm / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.579%
O 3.561%
O 4.543%
O 5.527%
O 6.515%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Joe RyanMIN starter / home
Projected K7.7
Best price at 7.57.5O -106 betrivers / U +105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 7.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.598%
O 3.594%
O 4.587%
O 5.577%
O 6.564%
O 7.550%
O 8.537%
O 9.526%
O 10.517%
O 11.511%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+147 / -175LAA / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total