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LAA 3 / MIN 5
LAALos Angeles Angels40%
MINMinnesota Twins60%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterRyan JohnsonConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
MINHome starterJoe RyanConfirmed
LAA40%ML +149
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
MIN60%ML -180

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.4 pts

Model and market align closely: MIN -168 implies 62.7% vs model's 60.0%. Joe Ryan's 2.85 ERA over 104 IP is elite, Johnson's 6.99 ERA in 28 IP is exploitable. Model total 8.80 vs market 9.0 suggests slight under comparison. Ryan's strikeout stuff (10.52 K/9) should suppress LAA's weak offense (3.9 RPG, though .860 OPS seems misreported).

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 fanduel / U +118 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Joe RyanMIN starter / home
Projected K7.7Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +100 betrivers / U -113 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 7.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.594%over
O 4.587%over
O 5.577%over
O 6.564%under
O 7.550%under
O 8.537%under
O 9.526%under
O 10.517%under
O 11.511%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+149 / -180LAA / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+111)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -107 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total