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CLE 5 / MIN 2
CLECleveland Guardians44%
MINMinnesota Twins56%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
MINHome starterBailey OberConfirmed
CLE44%ML -122
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
MIN56%ML +104

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap8.8 pts

Model has MIN at 56% but market says CLE 54%. That's a 10pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Gavin Williams' 10.41 K/9 over 106 IP is legit; Ober's 4.59 ERA in 67 IP suggests model is overweighting home field. Market line is sharp here, lean CLE but no strong comparison. Total at 8.92 vs market 8.5 is tight, pass.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +122 fanduel / U -139 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%over
O 10.54%over
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Bailey OberMIN starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 betmgm / U +120 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-122 / +104CLE / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total