sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

LAD 12 / MIN 3
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%
MINMinnesota Twins42%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterJustin WrobleskiConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
MINHome starterKendry RojasConfirmed
LAD58%ML -176
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
MIN42%ML +146

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.8 pts

Model has LAD at 58.3%, market at 63.6% — meaningful gap favoring LAD more than model sees. Rojas has just 14.1 IP this season; his 1.26 ERA is pure small-sample noise. Wrobleski's 2.72 ERA over 79.3 IP is legitimate. Ace matchup flag applies but Rojas sample is too thin to trust. Total: model 9.17 vs market 9.0 is tight; lean under on Wrobleski's form.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 betrivers / U -122 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kendry RojasMIN starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -141 betrivers / U +107 betrivers1 book at this line
Model over 2.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.574%over
O 2.549%over
O 3.528%over
O 4.513%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-176 / +146LAD / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -116
32 books30 ML22 run line21 total